A Theoretical Framework of the Impacts of Dutch Disease on the Industrial Sector in Iran (Emphasizing Microeconomic Approach)
Dutch disease has numerous (though not much various) definitions in different economic structures. These definitions look at the issue of the Dutch disease from different angles. In some definitions, based on the economic structure of the relevant countries, the symptoms of the disease are emphasized; while in some others, the focus is on etiology and the causes of the disease. Other definitions look at the mechanisms and processes through which the disease impacts the economy. In a general definition, the Dutch disease is identified as a harmful phenomenon resulting from the discovery of natural resources leading to an unbalanced economic growth. One way of looking at Dutch disease, is studying its effects on the industrial sector from a micro-economic analysis perspective. In a well-known definition, the Dutch disease (in the microeconomic environment) is the outcome of selling unprocessed raw natural resources (oil) causing the change rates of return and shadow prices of factors of production. Dutch disease as a factor for changes in the relative prices of tradable and non-traded goods can in three ways distort the country's industrial structure: first, changing the shadow prices of factors of production in favor of the oil sector and to the detriment of the manufacturing sector; second, changing the rates of return of factors of production (including wages) to the detriment of the tradable sector; and third, directly affecting the monetary structure of the economy and consequently interest rates, decreasing credit to the detriment of production sector, investment incentives, as well as industrial employment through stabilizing interest rates. The result of such a distortion of the industrial structure will be: - a strengthened oil sector and lack of substitution among factors of production in the oil sector and other economic sectors and consequently an unbalanced economic growth, as well as a continued single-commodity specialization of the economy; - increased consumerism at the expense of future generations; - reduced investment incentives due to decreased ratio of the rate of return of investment to the rate of time preference (with an emphasis on the industrial sector); - Increased cost of installation and maintenance of industrial investments; - monetary instability in the economy resulting from the increased high powered money and continued creation of bank credits.
Key words: Dutch Disease; Natural resources; Economic growth; Oil sector; Rate of return; Factors of production; Single-commodity specialization; Monetary instability.