Monitoring trade developments (latest economic and trade situation in the world and Iran)

Trade developments in recent months have been largely driven by the prevailing developments in international trade in the effects and consequences of the outbreak of Covid-19. Some of the latest and most important business developments are as follows:

1- Decline in trade in goods and services in the world

  • A 13 to 32 percent reduction in trade in goods, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO) by the end of 2020;
  • Predict significant trade decline in more complex parts of the global value chain;
  • 47% decrease in services trade forecast;
  • Severe damage to air services in Europe, Asia, Oceania and North America;
  • 8.6% decrease in maritime transport in February 2020 compared to the same period of the previous year;
  • Predict a 45% reduction in tourism services and an increase of up to 70% if the outbreak of coronavirus continues.

2- Disruption of global value chains due to long trade process of intermediate products

3- Shrinking Iran's trade with the consequences of the outbreak of Covid-19 with restrictions caused by sanctions

  • The IMF forecasts a $ 16 billion reduction in Iran's trade by the end of 2020;
  • 36% decrease in Iran's trade in the spring of 1399, according to the country's customs report;
  • A 70% drop in Iran-Turkey trade and a drop in Turkey's ranking from third to fifth among Iran's export destinations during the first quarter of this year due to restrictions mainly due to the spread of the Corona virus;
  • Replacing Russia with imports of $ 421 million instead of Germany with imports of about $ 386 million in the ranking of the country's five imports during the first quarter of this year (1399).

4- The need to promote the export of pharmaceutical-health products related to Covid-19 to 15 neighbor countries

  •  Iran's export potential to neighbor countries before the outbreak of coronary heart disease in these products was estimated at $ 445 million (including 76 items), which in practice was about $ 380 million (85% and including 50 items); According to this estimate, $ 57 million (in current goods and 27 items of new goods) of unused export capacity, of which 52% is related to health and laboratory equipment, 31% to drugs and pharmaceutical products, 12% to personal protective equipment and 5% of medical equipment. Given the increase of 5 to 10 times in domestic production as well as the import demand of trading partners, it is predicted that the real figure of unused export potential of Covid-19 related products will be many times the estimated figure.

5. Based on global experience, in the context of the outbreak of Covid-19, the reduction of regulatory rules and financial support have been the most important measures to facilitate the business process and reduce costs imposed on the actors in this sector.

6- The need to exchange trade concessions with neighbor countries (following the current year's trade development plan of the country to promote trade with 15 neighbor countries, China, India, Syria and Lebanon), especially regarding the removal of restrictions on the spread of the Covid-19 in the current bilateral agreement (from Including Pakistan and Turkey, Russia, Kazakhstan and Afghanistan) and ongoing (with India).



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